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Pakistani Stock Market Perspective 2026: Is KSE-100 Boom Real Growth or Speculative Illusion?

The KSE-100 Index has delivered jaw-dropping returns, surging over 425% since 2021 when it stood around 44,000 points closing at 172,170 on February 19, 2026 after a recent 3.74% dip. Market capitalization ballooned from PKR 6.5 trillion in June 2020 to PKR 19.69 trillion (USD 70.25 billion) by December 2025, with free-float at roughly USD 53 billion. Yet renowned chartered accountant Syed Shabbar Zaidi raises sharp questions in his latest analysis: does this rally truly mirror Pakistan’s economic health, or is it largely driven by speculation, high bank profits from government borrowings, and oil & gas gains tied to rupee depreciation and dollar indexation? The full opinion piece is available on Business Recorder . Zaidi highlights stark realities Pakistan’s market cap-to-GDP ratio sits at just 17% (with 2025 GDP around USD 407 411 billion), compared to India’s 130% (market cap over USD 5 trillion) and the USA’s 100%. Listed companies have barely grown (535 today vs 659 in 2005...
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Pakistani Stock Market Perspective 2026: Is KSE-100 Boom Real Growth or Speculative Illusion?


The KSE-100 Index has delivered jaw-dropping returns, surging over 425% since 2021 when it stood around 44,000 points closing at 172,170 on February 19, 2026 after a recent 3.74% dip. Market capitalization ballooned from PKR 6.5 trillion in June 2020 to PKR 19.69 trillion (USD 70.25 billion) by December 2025, with free-float at roughly USD 53 billion. Yet renowned chartered accountant Syed Shabbar Zaidi raises sharp questions in his latest analysis: does this rally truly mirror Pakistan’s economic health, or is it largely driven by speculation, high bank profits from government borrowings, and oil & gas gains tied to rupee depreciation and dollar indexation? The full opinion piece is available on Business Recorder.

Zaidi highlights stark realities Pakistan’s market cap-to-GDP ratio sits at just 17% (with 2025 GDP around USD 407 411 billion), compared to India’s 130% (market cap over USD 5 trillion) and the USA’s 100%. Listed companies have barely grown (535 today vs 659 in 2005), investor base remains tiny at 230,000 (vs India’s 120 million), and foreign investors turned net sellers of USD 393 million in 2025. Banking sector after-tax profits exploded (Rs 644 billion in 2024), while oil & gas giants like OGDCL, PPL and Mari Petroleum posted strong numbers on higher wellhead prices but these are not signs of broad productivity, he argues.

The piece calls for regulatory focus to shift the market from trader-driven volatility to genuine economic linkage. Discussions on X echo the debate, with users noting the scale gap: see Grok’s comparison of PSX vs Indian market cap and another take on why percentage gains feel amplified in Pakistan here. Zaidi’s perspective arrives at a timely moment as investors weigh sustainability amid ongoing volatility.

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